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Description

Strategic Foresight: Detecting Weak Signals, Building Scenarios and Deciding

Build forward-looking scenarios that genuinely support decisions instead of simply extending past trend lines

  • 0.43 days — 3 h
  • In-person or virtual
  • Foundation
  • Up to 6 participants

Three-year plans usually rest on the assumption that current trends will continue. Regulatory, climate or technological discontinuities then arrive as surprises, even though the signals were readable well in advance. Workshops devoted to the future often turn into a round of opinions, with no method and no usable output.

Three hours to discover the foresight approach: identifying the variables that structure a system, spotting weak signals, building a small set of contrasting scenarios and drawing out the decisions to be taken now. This short format delivers the method and applies it to a topic brought by the group.

Learning objectives

  • Distinguish the foresight approach from forecasting by extrapolation
  • Identify the variables that structure the system under review
  • Detect and qualify weak signals
  • Build contrasting scenarios from the selected variables
  • Translate scenarios into decisions to be taken

What makes this programme different

The method is applied from the first hour to a topic brought by the group
Three contrasting scenarios are drafted and then challenged in session
Each scenario is translated into concrete decisions to be taken

Programme

1Moving Beyond Trend Extension

Framing the question differently

  • Distinguish forecasting, projection and foresight
  • Identify the biases that narrow thinking
  • Define the system under review and its time horizon
  • Formulate the initial foresight question

2Variables and Signals

Gathering the raw material

  • Identify driving variables and dependent variables
  • Map the actors involved and their strategies
  • Collect and qualify weak signals
  • Distinguish deep-seated trends from possible discontinuities

3Scenarios and Decisions

Making the analysis useful

  • Combine hypotheses into contrasting scenarios
  • Write each scenario as a clear narrative
  • Test the robustness of the decisions under consideration
  • Identify the decisions to be taken without delay

Who is it for

Executives responsible for strategy and CSR officers involved in medium-term thinking.

Prerequisites

No prior knowledge required

Dates & locations

12 scheduled dates between November 2026 and December 2027. Seats are confirmed in the order enquiries are received.

November 2026

December 2026

January 2027

February 2027

March 2027

April 2027

May 2027

June 2027

September 2027

October 2027

November 2027

December 2027

None of these dates suit you? We open additional sessions on request, and any programme can be run privately for your team.

Practical details

Before the programme
Online positioning questionnaire. Your development objectives are shared with the trainer, who tailors the practical case studies to your context.
Teaching methods
Theoretical input, workshops and practical case studies. Digital course materials and method sheets provided.
Assessment
Multiple-choice tests and role-play exercises. Assessment of learning at the start and end of the programme, with immediate and 60-day follow-up evaluations.
After the programme
One year of access to the e-learning platform. Self-assessment of the skills acquired and a 30-day follow-up session with your trainer.
How to register
Registration online or on the basis of a quotation.
Lead time
11 working days after confirmation of registration.
Accessibility
Accessible to people of determination. Contact our accessibility coordinator to design a suitable solution: contact@mpf-academy.ae
Start dates
Rolling intake: in addition to the scheduled sessions, this programme can start on request.