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Description

Decision-Making Under Uncertainty: Building Scenarios, Making Trade-Offs and Managing Risk

Structuring a high-stakes decision when data is incomplete and time is short

  • 1 day — 7 h
  • In-person or virtual
  • Expert
  • Up to 6 participants

Some decisions cannot be reduced to a spreadsheet. A market may turn or a critical supplier may fail. Faced with this, committees postpone the trade-off, call for one more study or retain the option that is easiest to defend. The cost of indecision is never weighed against the cost of getting it wrong.

This 7-hour programme is not a data analysis course. It addresses the decision itself, in situations where the information will remain incomplete. Participants learn to qualify the nature of the uncertainty, then to build workable scenarios. They also practise collective trade-off making and the steering of a decision once it has been taken.

Learning objectives

  • Qualify the nature of the uncertainty affecting a decision
  • Distinguish a reversible decision from a commitment that is difficult to undo
  • Build contrasting scenarios and draw operational consequences from them
  • Weigh waiting for more information against deciding as things stand
  • Lead a collective trade-off while limiting conformity effects
  • Steer the decision taken using early warning signals defined in advance

What makes this programme different

A real decision brought by a participant is worked through from framing to follow-up plan
The cost of waiting is set against the cost of an error for each option
A pre-mortem exercise is run before final validation

Programme

1Framing the Decision and the Uncertainty

Naming what is unknown

  • Distinction between known risk and deep uncertainty
  • Identification of the assumptions that genuinely carry the decision
  • Reversible decisions, heavy commitments and intermediate options
  • The cost of waiting and the cost of a wrong decision
  • Formulation of the question submitted for decision

2Tools to Support Trade-Offs

Structuring without false precision

  • Building contrasting scenarios and their supporting narratives
  • Decision trees and the sequencing of commitments
  • The value of additional information before making the call
  • Limited tests and staged commitments
  • Selection criteria when options are not comparable

3Deciding Collectively and Steering

Holding the decision over time

  • Common biases under uncertainty and ways to contain them
  • Organising a decision committee and surfacing disagreement
  • Pre-mortem exercise before validation
  • Defining early warning signals and review thresholds
  • Communicating the decision and managing a change of course

Who is it for

Executives, members of management committees, business unit directors, heads of strategy and managers of high-stakes projects.

Prerequisites

Holding decision-making responsibility or sitting on a decision-making body

Dates & locations

36 scheduled dates between November 2026 and December 2027. Seats are confirmed in the order enquiries are received.

November 2026

December 2026

January 2027

February 2027

March 2027

April 2027

May 2027

June 2027

September 2027

October 2027

November 2027

December 2027

None of these dates suit you? We open additional sessions on request, and any programme can be run privately for your team.

Practical details

Before the programme
Online positioning questionnaire. Your development objectives are shared with the trainer, who tailors the practical case studies to your context.
Teaching methods
Theoretical input, workshops and practical case studies. Digital course materials and method sheets provided.
Assessment
Multiple-choice tests and role-play exercises. Assessment of learning at the start and end of the programme, with immediate and 60-day follow-up evaluations.
After the programme
One year of access to the e-learning platform. Self-assessment of the skills acquired and a 30-day follow-up session with your trainer.
How to register
Registration online or on the basis of a quotation.
Lead time
11 working days after confirmation of registration.
Accessibility
Accessible to people of determination. Contact our accessibility coordinator to design a suitable solution: contact@mpf-academy.ae
Start dates
Rolling intake: in addition to the scheduled sessions, this programme can start on request.