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Description

Sales Forecasting: Preparing History, Calculating and Improving Forecast Reliability

Practise on real sales history to produce a forecast you can defend in front of operations

  • 2 days — 14 h
  • In-person or virtual
  • Foundation
  • Up to 6 participants

The sales forecast drives the entire supply chain: it determines replenishment, inventory levels and production load. Yet it is often based on the sales team's gut feeling or on simply repeating last month's figures. The resulting stock-outs and dormant inventory are blamed on logistics, when in fact they originate much further upstream.

These two days are devoted to practice: cleaning the history, identifying trend and seasonality, applying the standard calculation methods, measuring forecast error and reconciling the result with commercial intelligence. Exercises follow one another on spreadsheet, using realistic data sets.

Learning objectives

  • Prepare a sales history that can be used for forecasting
  • Identify the trend and seasonality of a sales series
  • Apply the forecasting methods suited to the demand profile
  • Measure forecast error and track how it evolves
  • Reconcile the calculated forecast with field information
  • Present the agreed forecast in the planning review meeting

What makes this programme different

The programme is built as a sequence of spreadsheet exercises rather than a lecture
Participants may work on their own sales history
Forecast error is measured at every exercise so methods can be compared with each other

Programme

1Preparing the History

Clean the data before calculating

  • Choosing the forecasting granularity and horizon
  • Spotting outliers and periods affected by stock-outs
  • Adjusting for promotions and exceptional events
  • Grouping references that behave in a similar way

2Reading Demand

Recognise the profile before choosing the method

  • Trend, seasonality and random component of a series
  • Distinguishing regular demand from erratic demand
  • Effect of the product life cycle on the forecast
  • Graphical representation as the first analysis tool

3Calculating the Forecast

Apply the appropriate method

  • Moving averages and exponential smoothing
  • Factoring in trend and seasonal coefficients
  • Forecasting slow-moving items
  • Setting method parameters and the effect on responsiveness
  • Automating calculations in a spreadsheet

4Measuring and Arbitrating

Moving from the calculated forecast to the committed forecast

  • Forecast error indicators and tracking over time
  • Investigating the causes of a persistent error
  • Contribution of commercial information and product launches
  • Running the forecast consensus meeting
  • Communicating the forecast to replenishment teams

Who is it for

Demand planners, buyers and replenishment officers, inventory controllers, production planners, supply chain managers and order management staff.

Prerequisites

Be able to use a spreadsheet and understand how the supply chain operates.

Dates & locations

36 scheduled dates between November 2026 and December 2027. Seats are confirmed in the order enquiries are received.

November 2026

December 2026

January 2027

February 2027

March 2027

April 2027

May 2027

June 2027

September 2027

October 2027

November 2027

December 2027

None of these dates suit you? We open additional sessions on request, and any programme can be run privately for your team.

Practical details

Before the programme
Online positioning questionnaire. Your development objectives are shared with the trainer, who tailors the practical case studies to your context.
Teaching methods
Theoretical input, workshops and practical case studies. Digital course materials and method sheets provided.
Assessment
Multiple-choice tests and role-play exercises. Assessment of learning at the start and end of the programme, with immediate and 60-day follow-up evaluations.
After the programme
One year of access to the e-learning platform. Self-assessment of the skills acquired and a 30-day follow-up session with your trainer.
How to register
Registration online or on the basis of a quotation.
Lead time
11 working days after confirmation of registration.
Accessibility
Accessible to people of determination. Contact our accessibility coordinator to design a suitable solution: contact@mpf-academy.ae
Start dates
Rolling intake: in addition to the scheduled sessions, this programme can start on request.